How should we sustain future forests under extreme risk?

In this paper, we examine the implications of managing for sustained yield in a world characterized by growing risk and uncertainty. We review history (SY) forestry North America, with an emphasis on economic benefits persistence SY paradigm today, despite publicized shift towards wider range forest values called sustainable management (SFM). show that current goals around sustainability as well SFM indicators are still predicated maximizing harvest levels timber flows. build simple model to explore under extreme (fat-tailed) assumptions level without adequately accounting leads depletion stock corresponding decline economy. discuss these results relation real-world events such increase catastrophic fires pest outbreaks like mountain pine beetle Western Canada. then theoretical practical flow from analysis.